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Post by Bill Sadek on Oct 2, 2022 10:40:47 GMT -5
Saturday October 8, 2022 - 9:00 AM CST I'll be doing a presentation on the following: 1) Examining the 3% 5% Timer 12 years after its first introduction to the Mechanical Trading Systems Group. Its performance will be compared to the top 74 newsletters, as presented in the Hulbert Financial Digest. Will examine the logic behind why it works, not just how it works. 2) Introducing a new market timer that switches between the S&P, short-term bonds and cash. This timer can be used as a stand alone strategy, or when the 3% 5% Timer goes to cash. It can also be used as a conservative strategy to trade Vanguard Wellesley, a balanced mutual fund (VWINX or VWIAX). Agenda for the Saturday meeting: Introduction and Welcome Dan Yaklin Defensive Approaches to Investing Bill Sadek Click on the link below to join the meeting. You will need a PC or smart device with a speaker. It is best if you have a mic, but not absolutely required. You can call in to the dial in number for audio and also to be able to ask questions if you don’t have a mic for your computer. Also you will be able to type your questions or comments into a chat window. Topic: MTS Zoom Meeting Time: Oct 8, 2022 09:00 AM Central Time (US and Canada) Join Zoom Meeting: us02web.zoom.us/j/88925711661?pwd=YThpRG9SSGpVYzRwOGlSMTgzbUFzQT09Meeting ID: 889 2571 1661 Passcode: 058308 One tap mobile +13462487799,,88925711661#,,,,*058308# US (Houston) +17193594580,,88925711661#,,,,*058308# US Dial by your location +1 346 248 7799 US (Houston) +1 719 359 4580 US +1 253 215 8782 US (Tacoma) +1 669 444 9171 US +1 669 900 9128 US (San Jose) +1 564 217 2000 US +1 646 558 8656 US (New York) +1 646 931 3860 US +1 301 715 8592 US (Washington DC) +1 309 205 3325 US +1 312 626 6799 US (Chicago) +1 386 347 5053 US Meeting ID: 889 2571 1661 Passcode: 058308 Find your local number: us02web.zoom.us/u/kWC4qwVnMRegards, Dan Yaklin dyaklin@sbcglobal.net_ |
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Post by linter on Oct 2, 2022 16:32:32 GMT -5
could you say a few words about the 3% 5% trader or provide a link w/ more info? thanks!
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Post by Bill Sadek on Oct 6, 2022 11:40:52 GMT -5
linter The strategy uses the 200 moving average (SMA). A 3% band is drawn above and a 5% band is drawn below the 200 SMA. Go long if the close is greater than the 3% band. Exit long if the close is less than the 5% band. You can use pretty much any charting software. Stockcharts is not my favorite to use for this purpose, but here is the link to schrts.co/hUsvUWFf Notice the 3% and 5% bands are drawn both above and below the 200 SMA. You only use the 3% band above the 200 SMA and the 5% band below the 200 SMA and don't pay attention to the other bands. This strategy is being used by one of the mega money managers.
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Post by linter on Oct 6, 2022 15:02:47 GMT -5
interesting. thanks much. i'll try to make it to the gathering ...
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Post by linter on Oct 6, 2022 15:25:18 GMT -5
ps i threw the strategy together in thinkorswim and got the following for the past ten years. does it resemble at all your results? it very well may not, since i did it on the fly. i.imgur.com/TMd8IWL.png |
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Post by Bill Sadek on Oct 8, 2022 14:59:15 GMT -5
linter here are the trades using Amibroker software: imgur.com/a/OkHcKGcHere it is using Tradestation: imgur.com/a/82oUqDdInstead of using the close > upper or C < lower band, I use 3 SMA instead of the close. This is in the presentation. The presentation was recorded so I'll post the link in a day or two.
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Post by linter on Oct 8, 2022 16:28:30 GMT -5
sorry i missed the presentation but i will look at the recording. thanks.
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Post by Bill Sadek on Oct 9, 2022 9:14:08 GMT -5
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Post by greedychicken on Oct 16, 2022 12:02:44 GMT -5
Bill Sadek, thanks for sharing your strategy! I am only about 1 hour into the video, but I find it very interesting. You mentioned in the presentation that you don't use the strategy with IWM or QQQ. I am curious if you have tried to generalize the strategy for more or less volatile funds -- perhaps using longer than 200 day moving average for more volatile funds and vice versa, or wider deadbands, etc.
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Post by Bill Sadek on Oct 16, 2022 12:36:34 GMT -5
greedychicken I have not used this strategy on other symbols besides the S&P. The S&P has an upward bias which trades well with trend following strategies that use some kind of a filter to prevent whipsaws. I use the 3% 5% timer strategy as a signal for when to be more or less aggressive and as a general market guide / informational purposes. The second timer I introduced at minute 43:00 might be more suitable to experiment with and use with other symbols; just replace SPY with the symbol you want to test tinyurl.com/2uj6amcd
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Post by raopa on Oct 22, 2022 15:07:03 GMT -5
@bill Sadek, @greedy Chicken, This NY Post cover story 401 retirement accounts were down 25% is contrary opinion to buy equities. Since the cover story last week, SPY is up 4.6%. nypost.com/cover/october-17-2022/
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Post by greedychicken on Oct 23, 2022 11:14:30 GMT -5
@bill Sadek, @greedy Chicken, This NY Post cover story 401 retirement accounts were down 25% is contrary opinion to buy equities. Since the cover story last week, SPY is up 4.6%. nypost.com/cover/october-17-2022/ , that reads more like a political rant than an economic prediction. But sure, let's hope last week's bounce has some follow through! I bought a few shares of SPXL on dips after reading an article on SA by Peter F. Way ( seekingalpha.com/article/4542588-spxl-3x-s-and-p-500-etf-best-of-all-leveraged-longs), and it's nice to see some modest gains there. Ideally I'd like to see SPY close 3% above the 200 day SMA, per Bill's strategy. That seems pretty resistant to short term whipsaw. But the optimist in me would settle for hearing the fed members say, "Whoops, we may have overdone it." One can dream!  |
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Post by linter on Oct 23, 2022 15:04:57 GMT -5
if any of ya'll want to do some short term trading -- 2 to 4 weeks or so -- i suggest having a look at this seeking alpha blog. i've been hanging around there for about a year, playing with tiny amounts of money, and my win rate is something like 95%. no doubt if i had serious money involved it'd be a far different picture but still, it's been fun and illuminating and it whiles away the hours while waiting for bonds to take off again. the leader of the gang had a stroke earlier this year so his posts aren't what they once were but the people there are nice and open and we're all praying for jc's eventual recovery. seekingalpha.com/instablog/25866293-jc-rochester/5651741-halloween-effect-appears-to-arrive-on-schedule-ushering-in-favorable-period-of-year#comments_headerit's the comments you want to see, if you're interested at all. |
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Post by ee2trader on Oct 26, 2022 8:42:28 GMT -5
if any of ya'll want to do some short term trading -- 2 to 4 weeks or so -- i suggest having a look at this seeking alpha blog. i've been hanging around there for about a year, playing with tiny amounts of money, and my win rate is something like 95%. no doubt if i had serious money involved it'd be a far different picture but still, it's been fun and illuminating and it whiles away the hours while waiting for bonds to take off again. the leader of the gang had a stroke earlier this year so his posts aren't what they once were but the people there are nice and open and we're all praying for jc's eventual recovery. seekingalpha.com/instablog/25866293-jc-rochester/5651741-halloween-effect-appears-to-arrive-on-schedule-ushering-in-favorable-period-of-year#comments_headerit's the comments you want to see, if you're interested at all. Hi Linter, Looks interesting, but complicated. Seems like it would take a while to get up-to-speed (reading a years worth of comments). 2 quick questions: 1) Are the entries and exists well defined and systematic or are parts of the trades open to subjectivity? 2) Do the trades have defined stop losses? Thanks, Dan |
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Post by linter on Oct 26, 2022 20:09:09 GMT -5
hi, dan: it does take a while to learn but i've never been a good trend follower and this is all about mean reversion and simply buying when it hurts the most. not that complicated. i'm in the comments as lintervvv. my two most recent trades were +6% and +18% in two days and that's common. entries / exits are fairly well defined but the leader there, JC, is a great trader and can do what others can't, so i've modded things a bit to suit my lack of skill. basically, i buy only when the shit really hits the fan and when hitting the buy button kinda makes me want to throw up.
of course, there's always some subjectivity but the basic protocol is entirely rules based and makes total sense to me.
as to stop losses -- well, here's where things get tricky. no stop losses. none, nada, zippo. but that's not uncommon with mean reversionists because the whole point is to buy when others won't and to follow the rules and not wait for even the slightest turnaround. yeah, i know it sounds crazy but i just went and looked at my trade stats and out of my past 22 trades, there were only two losses, both under 4%, and maybe 5 or 6 break evens. the rest were up 5% to 20%. and i would have done tons better had i followed the protocol and not bailed early.
again, i'm playing with a tiny amount of money so this is just cheap entertainment for me. i'm certain that if i had serious money at stake, i'd get blown out left and right.
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